{"id":9767,"date":"2026-06-11T16:44:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T14:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/?p=9767"},"modified":"2026-06-12T13:48:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T11:48:04","slug":"estonia-offers-europe-a-cautionary-tale-on-nicotine-regulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/en\/estonia-offers-europe-a-cautionary-tale-on-nicotine-regulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Estonia offers Europe a cautionary tale on nicotine regulation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>As the European Union debates how to tax and regulate nicotine products, evidence from a unique \u201ccontrolled experiment\u201d in Estonia provides a cautionary tale about the effects of prohibitionist policies.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estonian consumers have been stuck on a nicotine policy rollercoaster since the country decided to implement an excise tax on e-liquids in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The following year, the country banned all non-tobacco e-liquid flavours before relaxing restrictions slightly in 2020 to allow menthol flavours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe reintroduction of menthol had a bigger impact than anticipated,\u201d Ingmar Kurg, CEO of <a href=\"https:\/\/nna.ee\/en\/\">NNA Smoke Free Estonia<\/a>, tells Snusforumet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt really shows how much difference a single non-tobacco flavour can make.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Estonia\u2019s nicotine excise tax U-turn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evidence of the impact of menthol comes from <a href=\"https:\/\/nna.ee\/en\/398-estonia-tpd2-lessons\">comparing excise tax revenues<\/a> before and after the flavour was reintroduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, making the comparison is complicated by Estonia\u2019s excise tax U-turn in 2021, when parliament voted to suspend the tax amid concerns about growing illicit trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Various surveys conducted at the time estimated that illicit trade accounted for 62-80 percent of Estonia\u2019s e-liquid market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhen you ban or restrict a product, demand doesn\u2019t go away,\u201d says Kurg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt simply moves elsewhere to places where tax collectors and regulators can\u2019t see it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers instead sought out e-liquids from Latvia and Russia, which offered lower prices and a greater range of flavours, he explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A five-fold increase in tax revenues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estonia eventually reinstated the e-liquid excise tax in 2023, yielding \u20ac5.7 million in revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure caught Kurg\u2019s attention, as it represented a fivefold increase over the roughly \u20ac1.1 million in revenue generated by the same tax in 2020, when menthol was still banned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHaving such a restrictive flavour ban pre-2020 meant Estonia lost out on a lot of potential tax revenue,\u201d says Kurg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Legalising menthol meant a lot more of that revenue went to the state instead of getting lost to the underground market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estonia\u2019s tax revenue figures also reveal that consumers are shifting toward less risky products, which have tripled their share of excise tax revenues from 2018 to 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, excise tax revenue generated from the sale of all tobacco and nicotine products rose from \u20ac200 million to \u20ac260 million during the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nicotine pouches in particular stand out, accounting for a 13-fold increase in tax revenues from when data first became available in 2019 to 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhen low-risk products are properly regulated, consumers are more likely to choose them over cigarettes,\u201d says Kurg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis shift also ended up increasing the state\u2019s revenues rather than hurting them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Prohibitionist concerns with TPD3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He believes what he calls Estonia\u2019s \u201ccontrolled experiment\u201d in nicotine policy changes holds important lessons for policymakers elsewhere in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sharp and sudden shifts in policies, while disruptive, have nevertheless generated strong evidence about the impact of restrictive policies on illicit trade and tax revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He believes the EU\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/en\/the-tobacco-products-directive-a-guide-to-nicotine-legislation-in-the-eu\/\">Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) <\/a>is an important tool for protecting consumers from unregulated, untested products. But he\u2019s unsure the <a href=\"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/en\/tpd3-consumers-and-scientists-urged-to-act-as-eu-prepares-new-tobacco-rules\/\">current debate<\/a> about revising the TPD is heading in the right direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI\u2019m very concerned about the possibility of more restrictive flavour bans with TPD3,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI wouldn\u2019t have believed it myself a few years ago, but the situation in Estonia shows you even one non-tobacco flavour can make a significant difference.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Sweden\u2019s \u2018pragmatic\u2019 harm reduction policies<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another concern is an overly restrictive nicotine cap. While he\u2019s not opposed to regulating the strength of nicotine, he fears that putting the limit too low would make it harder for smokers to quit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s much harder to make the transition to vapes or pouches if there isn\u2019t enough nicotine there to satisfy people\u2019s cravings,\u201d Kurg says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He points to <a href=\"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/en\/swedens-success-in-nicotine-pouch-regulations-lessons-for-the-eu\/\">Sweden as an example<\/a> of a \u201cpragmatic approach\u201d to tobacco and nicotine regulation that has yielded impressive results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/snusforumet.se\/en\/new-data-confirms-swedens-smoke-free-status\/\">Sweden is a real-world example<\/a> of harm reduction in action,\u201d Kurg tells Snusforumet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhich is why it\u2019s so baffling that more regulators around Europe don\u2019t just look at the data and use Sweden as a model for regulations elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the European Union debates how to tax and regulate nicotine products, evidence from a unique \u201ccontrolled experiment\u201d in Estonia provides a cautionary tale about&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":9768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[218],"tags":[263,666,665,667,415,311,262],"class_list":["post-9767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-regulations","tag-e-cigarettes","tag-e-liquids","tag-estonia","tag-illicit-trade","tag-taxes","tag-tpd","tag-vaping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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